Unintended Pregnancy and State Abortion Policy: Rational Choice or Random Behavior?

Abstract

The rational choice model argues that restrictive state abortion laws, by increasing the cost of engaging in unprotected sexual activity, will induce women to adopt alternative birth control methods and reduce the incidence of unintended pregnancy. The random behavior model argues that women’s decisions to engage in unprotected sexual activity are independent of a state’s restrictive abortion laws. The random behavior model predicts that restrictive state abortion laws will have no effect on the incidence of unintended pregnancy. An analysis of the unintended pregnancy rates for the 50 U.S. states for the years 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2008 finds no empirical evidence that restrictive state abortion laws reduce state unintended pregnancy rates. Such a conclusion is inconsistent with the rational choice model, but consistent with the random behavior model.