Unified Models of Turnout and Vote Choice for Two-Candidate and Three-Candidate Elections

Abstract

In this article I use a theory of individual utility maximization to derive a unified model of electoral behavior that includes both candidate choices and turnout decisions. Compared to this new unified model, existing specifications for jointly considering turnout and vote choice are found to be theoretically or empirically lacking. I provide methods for testing my model in elections with two or three candidates, and I show that the parameters of these models can be estimated without difficulty using maximum likelihood techniques. Application of these unified models to the 1988 and 1992 American presidential elections illustrates the potential contrasts between unified models and models that consider only candidate choices.