Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Growth of Human Population

Abstract

Abstract. Data describing historical growth of human population, global and regional (Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, former USSR, Africa and Latin America), are analysed. Results are in harmony with the earlier analysis of the historical growth of the world population in the past 12,000 years and with other independent studies. This analysis is also in harmony with the study of the historical economic growth. Within the range of analysable data, there was no Malthusian stagnation. Takeoffs from stagnation to growth, postulated by the Unified Growth Theory never happened. There were no escapes from the Malthusian trap because there was no trap in the growth of population. This analysis and the earlier studies of the Gross Domestic Product lead to the conclusion that there were also no takeoffs in the income per capita distributions, claimed by the Unified Growth Theory. Consequently, the claimed differential timing in takeoffs never happened. Unified Growth Theory is contradicted yet again by the mathematical analysis of the same data, which were used, but never analysed, during the formulation of this theory. The study presented here, as well as earlier publications on the related topics, shows also that certain fundamental postulates used in the economic and demographic research are repeatedly contradicted by the mathematical analysis of data. Keywords. Population growth, Economic growth, Unified Growth Theory, Regimes of growth, Malthusian trap, Gross Domestic Product, Income per capita, Hyperbolic growth. JEL. A10, A12, B41, C50, F00, F01, Y80.