«Unfaithful» Pink salmon. Random or regularity?

Abstract

The reasons of «failed» forecasts for catch of pink salmon at the mainland coast of the Tatar Strait are analyzed. The classical «stock–recruitment» models produce regular errors in the forecasts of runs of pacific salmon under changing conditions of reproduction. To reduce the prediction errors, these models should include parameters of meteorological conditions in the freshwater period of salmon life. In particular case of pink salmon in the Tatar Strait, a relationship is revealed between the year-class strength and precipitation in winter during the period of egg incubation. Including this factor to the model based on Ricker equation increases the proportion of certainty in the variance of recruitment by more than 30 %.