Unexplained infectious events leading to deaths and medical admissions

Abstract

Twelve month period ending at to integrate health and social care (Jones, 2013a–b; 2014c; 2015b). It has been recently pointed out that emergency medical admissions do not grow as a continuous trend, as would be expected from the above ‘explanations’, but tends to grow in distinct spurts which coincides with points at which deaths show an unexplained large increase (Jones, 2013a; 2014a–d; 2015a; Jones and Beauchant, 2015). A running twelve-month total of deaths in Belfast from 1992 to 2013 is shown in Figure 1 to illustrate these periods of unexplained increase in deaths. On this occasion a second order polynomial curve fit has been applied to the ongoing trend downward in total deaths and the actual deaths relative to this long-term trend are shown in Figure 1. There has never been an adequate explanation for the peaks in death and in the absence of such an explanation they have largely been ignored as ‘one of those things’. The peaks in death show distinct spatial spread across the entire UK (Jones, 2015a). In Northern Ireland the 2012 event shows the maximum 12-month difference commencing in August 2011 in Belfast and Larne through to December 2012 in Castlereagh—i.e. spread across the whole of Northern Ireland takes around 16 months. Similar slow spatial spread has been observed in all parts of the UK (Jones, 2014a–e; Jones and Beauchant, 2015). Due to the fact that emergency admissions tend to cluster in the last months of life, there is a welldocumented relationship between occupied bed days and deaths (Jones, 2011). A potential link with the deaths in Figure 1 and medical emergency admissions is therefore explored in Figure 2, where it can be seen that Rod Jones Unexplained infectious events leading to deaths and medical admissions