Unemployment, Wage Pressure and Sectoral Shifts: Permanent and Temporary Consequences of Intersectoral Shocks

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to examine the effect of allocative disturbances using Italian labour market data and a VECM (vector error correction model). In order to measure sectoral shifts in labour demand, we use Neumann-Topel's [Neumann, G.R., & Topel, R.H. (1991). Employment risk, diversification, and unemployment. Quarterly Journal of Economics 106:1341–1365] employment-based dispersion index. In searching for a restricted cointegration space, we set down, and identify a stylized version of the battle of the mark-ups model. Lilien [Lilien, D. (1982). Sectoral shifts and cyclical unemployment. Journal of Political Economy 90:777–793] argued that an important part of cyclical unemployment comes from permanent shifts in the composition of labour demand. Our findings emphasize that an important source of the persistence of unemployment comes from sectoral shifts.