Unemployment matters: Voting patterns during the economic transition in Poland, 1990–1995

Abstract

AFTER THE VICTORY of the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) in Poland's 1993 parliamentary elections, the general consensus was that the increase in support for the reformed communist party was linked to the course of economic performance during the transition. What was less certain, however, was the precise nature of the relation between the economy and the election. One explanation was that the election resulted from mass disillusionment with the 'social costs' of reform. In this view, the voters, disappointed with 'unduly cruel market reforms' and the 'rapid enrichment of the few and impoverishment of many', '...led the post-communist parties to victory'.' The SLD and Polish Peasant Party (PSL) benefited from protest votes which expressed a uniform disapproval of the course of market reform. A weakness of this type of analysis is that it relies on imprecise language. For instance, Kabaj & Kowalik cite the existence of mass impoverishment without reference to any of the exhaustive research on the scale and distribution of poverty during transition.2 In contrast, this article argues that there are identifiable patterns of interest-based voting in Poland. These patterns are not only present in the more stable economy of 1992-95 but are observable and consistent across each of Poland's four elections. Unlike other studies of voting using regional demographic and socioeconomic data,3 conclusive results can be obtained through the use of only two economic variables. Distributional issues play a central role in economic voting. Despite a highly fragmented party system, the development of interest-based voting is discernible through the ongoing consolidation of political parties. Of the conclusions reached in this article, the most significant is the strong relation between unemployment rates and voting. The rise in support for the SLD is closely related to the rise in joblessness across time and its variation across regions. While this article concentrates on economic voting, it is acknowledged that non-economic issues also influence voters' decisions. For example, internal rifts and infighting in Solidarity, revealed by the 1990 'war at the top' between Walesa and Mazowiecki, damaged the organisation's public image. The much-discussed problem of the lack of parliamentary representation of the anti-communist centre-right is mostly a reflection of fragmentation at this end of the spectrum. The large number of small rightist parties have been reluctant to trade their separate identities and