Abstract
Since the 1970s, several European countries have experienced high union dissolution risk as well as high unemployment rates. The extent to which adverse economic conditions are associated with union instability is still unknown. This study explores the relationship between both individual and aggregate unemployment and union dissolution risk in five European countries before the recent economic crisis. Using rich longitudinal data from Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, and Italy, the empirical analysis, based on discrete-time event history models, shows that male unemployment consistently increases the risk of union dissolution. While a strong association is observed between male unemployment and separation at the micro level, no association is found between male unemployment and union dissolution at the macro level. The results for female unemployment are mixed, and the size of the impact of female unemployment is smaller in magnitude than that of male unemployment. In Germany and Italy, where until very recently work is less compatible with family life than in other countries, female unemployment is not significantly associated with union dissolution.
Highlights
With the recent economic crisis, renewed research interest in the effect of economic conditions on demographic behaviour has been observed
The model that analyses the effects of individual unemployment during the union and the impact of aggregate unemployment on dissolution risk is presented
A request for divorce could be made after five years of legal separation, but in 1987, a new law reduced this period from five to three years
Summary
With the recent economic crisis, renewed research interest in the effect of economic conditions on demographic behaviour has been observed. Divorce rates have been found to be lower during an economic crisis or an economic downturn in the US (Amato & Beattie 2011; Hellerstein & Morrill 2011; Schaller 2010) and, recently, in Europe (González-Val & Marcén 2017) This micro-macro paradox (Fisher & Liefbroer 2006) calls for further investigation, with the inclusion of individual as well as aggregate measures of economic uncertainty into the micro-level analysis of separation and divorce behaviour. This study draws on rich longitudinal data from Belgium (Flanders), Finland, France, Germany, and Italy to investigate the effect of individual and macro-level female and male unemployment on union dissolution risks. We control in the regression model for important confounders; we do not aim at establishing causal relationships, which should more rigorously account for the selection into unemployment
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