Abstract

Inferences about species loss following habitat conversion are typically drawn from short-term surveys, which cannot reconstruct long-term temporal dynamics of extinction and colonization. A long-term view can be critical, however, to determine the stability of communities within fragments. Likewise, landscape dynamics must be considered, as second growth structure and overall forest cover contribute to processes in fragments. Here we examine bird communities in 11 Amazonian rainforest fragments of 1–100 ha, beginning before the fragments were isolated in the 1980s, and continuing through 2007. Using a method that accounts for imperfect detection, we estimated extinction and colonization based on standardized mist-net surveys within discreet time intervals (1–2 preisolation samples and 4–5 post-isolation samples). Between preisolation and 2007, all fragments lost species in an area-dependent fashion, with loss of as few as <10% of preisolation species from 100-ha fragments, but up to 70% in 1-ha fragments. Analysis of individual time intervals revealed that the 2007 result was not due to gradual species loss beginning at isolation; both extinction and colonization occurred in every time interval. In the last two samples, 2000 and 2007, extinction and colonization were approximately balanced. Further, 97 of 101 species netted before isolation were detected in at least one fragment in 2007. Although a small subset of species is extremely vulnerable to fragmentation, and predictably goes extinct in fragments, developing second growth in the matrix around fragments encourages recolonization in our landscapes. Species richness in these fragments now reflects local turnover, not long-term attrition of species. We expect that similar processes could be operating in other fragmented systems that show unexpectedly low extinction.

Highlights

  • Area effects on species richness in habitat fragments have been well studied, even if results have not been consistent [1,2]

  • We asked the following: At,25 years after isolation, how many species are locally extinct in fragments, and how does extinction vary with fragment size? Which species are most likely to go extinct? Are the current communities in the fragments a result of long-term decay in species richness or a balance of extinction and colonization? How have extinction and colonization rates changed over time? Does reisolation of fragments lead to an increase in extinction and a decrease in colonization?

  • Extinctions preisolation to 2007 Between the preisolation and 2007 mist net samples we found strong area-dependent extinction rates, with mean extinction estimates from COMDYN4 of 44–84% in 1-ha fragments, 31– 45% in 10-ha fragments, and 8–16% in 100-ha fragments over this approximately 25 year period (Figure 1)

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Summary

Introduction

Area effects on species richness in habitat fragments have been well studied, even if results have not been consistent [1,2]. Emphasis has moved away from a viewing habitat fragments in a classic island biogeography context toward explicitly considering matrix effects and landscape-level habitat loss [3,4,5,6]. We know little about the pace of extinctions following isolation, about the role of recolonization in maintaining or adding species, or about the stability of reduced communities in fragments. These are important questions, especially for evaluating the extinction debt, or difference between current and ultimate species richness, in habitat fragments [7,8,9]. We need to know if documented species loss in fragments represents the start of a trajectory of extinctions or just the loss of a distinct subset of highly vulnerable species [1]

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