Understanding Trump's Trade Policy with China: International Pressures Meet Domestic Politics

Abstract

The trade confrontation between the United States and China has heightened global concerns that a trade war between the two largest economies would have serious consequences for the world economy. This article suggests employing a neoclassical realist framework to examine Trump's trade policy with China as to best explain the US–China trade disputes since 2018. It argues that Trump's trade policy with China is fundamentally driven by the increasingly competitive US–China relationship, which is influenced by Trump's perception of China as America's primary strategic competitor and concern with the US trade deficit, and reinforced by the Trumpization of the Republican Party under the US domestic polarization. The neoclassical realist analysis suggests that the trade tension embedded in the strategic competition between the two countries is likely to continue for a considerable time.