Abstract
IntroductionDisasters have many forms, including those related to natural hazards and armed conflict. Human-induced global change, such as climate change, may alter hazard parameters of these disasters. These alterations can have serious consequences for vulnerable populations, which often experience post-disaster infectious disease outbreaks, leading to morbidity and mortality. The risks and drivers for these outbreaks and their ability to form cascades are somewhat contested. Despite evidence for post-disaster outbreaks, reviews quantifying them have been on short time scales, specific geographic areas or specific hazards. This review aims to fill this gap and gain a greater understanding of the risk factors involved in these contextual outbreaks on a global level.Methods and analysisUsing the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols 2015 checklist and Khan’s methodological framework, a systematic search strategy will be created and carried out in August 2020. The strategy will search MEDLINE, Embase and GlobalHealth electronic databases and reference lists of selected literature will also be screened. Eligible studies will include any retrospective cross-sectional, case–control or cohort studies investigating an infectious disease outbreak in a local disaster affected population. Studies will not be excluded based on geographic area or publication date. Excluded papers will include non-English studies, reviews, single case studies and research discussing general risk factors, international refugee camps, public health, mental health and other non-communicable diseases, pathogen genetics or economics. Following selection, data will be extracted into a data charting form, that will be reviewed by other members of the team. The data will then be analysed both numerically and narratively.Ethics and disseminationOnly secondary data will be used and there will be no public or patient involvement; therefore, no ethical approval is needed. Our findings will aim to be disseminated through a peer-reviewed journal. The authors intend to use the results to inform future mathematical modelling studies.
Highlights
Disasters have many forms, including those related to natural hazards and armed conflict
A way in which disasters impact human health is via infectious disease outbreaks, which have been extensively reported.[13,14,15,16]
Objectives of this review are to: 1. Provide a global overview of infectious disease outbreaks that occurred in a post-d isaster setting, to examine common geographic regions, disasters and outbreak aetiologies
Summary
Disasters have many forms, including those related to natural hazards and armed conflict. ►► This review will not create a complete list of disaster-related disease outbreaks as it will only search peer-reviewed literature, which may have a publication bias. Political riots).[1 2] Disaster monitoring systems have shown alterations in frequency and intensity trends.[3 4] A possible contribution for this global change is human-induced climate change, through rising carbon dioxide emissions This may alter some hazard parameters.[5 6] For example: ►► Natural hazards—sea level rise and warming temperatures may alter hurricane frequency and intensity.7 8 ►► Armed conflict—increased temperatures may alter drought frequency, potentially influencing conflict escalation.[9 10] The potential for these trends to alter the vulnerability of disaster-affected populations demonstrates the importance of understanding the complexities of how disasters impact people. A way in which disasters impact human health is via infectious disease outbreaks, which have been extensively reported.[13,14,15,16]
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