Understanding the Relationship between Science and Religion Using Bayes’ Theorem

Abstract

This article examines the benefits of incorporating religious reflection into the psychology of religion and vice versa. By applying Bayes’ theorem, we discover that scientists and theologians can collaborate without sharing prior beliefs. Instead, rationality requires updating our beliefs before data collection in response to the degree of surprise generated by the data. Moreover, although people who start with different beliefs may become more aligned after data collection, rationality does not entail a convergence to identical beliefs. To illustrate the potential for growth in understanding from greater collaboration between theologians and scientists, I examine a longitudinal investigation of religion after a natural disaster. This case study illustrates how conversations between theological and psychological perspectives on religion can lead to a more comprehensive understanding of virtue cultivation, benefiting both science and theology.