Understanding the path towards a clean energy transition and post-electrification patterns of rural households

Cristina Dominguez,Kristina Orehounig,Jan Carmeliet

doi:10.1016/j.esd.2021.01.002

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the path towards a clean energy transition in rural areas, from the time that households do not have electricity access from any source, to when they get access to the national electricity; considering the intermediate access to an off-grid renewable technology, as well as the post-electrification years. For this, field household-level data are collected through surveys and electricity consumption measurements in rural Kenya. Potential electricity access transitions were analyzed, in which the determinants of grid-electricity and solar home system (SHS) adoption were identified, finding that factors such as peer-pressure, good quality housing materials, and a male as household head will increase the probabilities to up to 45% for grid-electricity adoption. Increasing the electricity price and the unreliability of the electricity service will have a negative effect on these probabilities, reducing them at rates from 5 to 22%. Households that had access to a SHS before getting grid-electricity connection are likely to consume 9 kWh/month (equivalent to 142KSh/month) more than those that did not have access to it. Results also show that women as decision-makers have a key role in the energy transition, as female-headed households are keener to move to cleaner fuels at an early stage. The post-electrification consumption peak is likely to occur until the third year of connection, as households acquire more power-consuming appliances; however, this is greatly affected by the electricity grid unreliability. These findings intend to fill in the knowledge gap on understanding each step of the energy ladder in rural areas, which can potentially support the design of energy access interventions and policy strategies.

Highlights

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the path towards a clean energy transition in rural areas, having evidence of representative households in Kenya
Filling in the knowledge gap of mapping the potential energy access ladder in rural areas, from the time that households do not have electricity access at all, to when they are connected to the national electricity grid; considering the intermediate access to an off-grid renewable technology, as well as the post- electrification years
The determinants of grid-electricity and solar home systems' adoption were identified, finding that factors such as belonging to a village included in Last Mile Connectivity Project, the share of grid-connected households, having good quality housing materials, and having a male household head will increase the probabilities of grid-electricity adoption

Summary

Introduction

Energy transition in rural areasRural households in developing countries meet their energy needs with a variety of fuels that need to be combusted, mostly happening under an unsafe environment and in an inefficient way (Heltberg, 2004; Howells et al, 2005). For describing energy transition in rural areas, the energy ladder metaphor is often used This states that households will move forward to cleaner and modern fuels to meet their energy needs as their income increases; existing as well the possibility that they use a fuels mix from the upper and lower steps of the ladder (Heltberg, 2004; Howells et al, 2005; Louw et al, 2008; van der Kroon et al, 2013). According to different studies in the literature, energy transition does not take place as anticipated for households that get electricity access, as they keep consuming conventional fuels – especially for cooking, balancing their fuels usage (Andadari et al, 2014; Heltberg, 2004; Howells et al, 2005; Louw et al, 2008; Rehman et al, 2010)

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