Understanding the nexus between public risk perception of COVID-19 and evacuation behavior during cyclone Amphan in Bangladesh

Md Shaharier Alam,Torit Chakraborty

doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e07655

Abstract

In May 2020, when Bangladesh was struggling with community transmission of COVID-19, the country had to face the strongest tropical storm- Cyclone Amphan -which puts the evacuation process in jeopardy. Thus, it is crucial to measure the public risk perception about COVID-19 and its influence on the evacuation decision. This study explores the nexus between COVID-19 risk perception and coastal peoples’ evacuation decisions during cyclone Amphan. With an analysis of 378 sample households survey data of the Satkhira district, this study developed the COVID-19 risk perception index using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and categorized the respondents based on the score. The result shows that 1.85 %, 21.43 %, 45.77 %, 25.13 %, and 5.82 % have very low, low, moderate, high, and very high-risk perceptions, respectively. The analysis also reveals that 96.6 % of the respondents received an evacuation order during Amphan, but only 42 % complied with the order. The t-test analysis and common language effect size test of the survey data reveal that the respondents with a high perception score are 65 % less likely to evacuate than the respondents with low perception scores. This study has important implications in guiding concerned authorities to combat natural disasters during COVID-19 and other similar public health emergencies in the future.

Highlights

Bangladesh is regarded as the land of disaster as the country experienced more than 200 natural disasters in the last three decades, which causes massive destruction of livelihoods and economy and the deterrent in the path of accomplishing sustainability (Reliefweb, 2020; Alam and Haque, 2018; Alam et al, 2019a,b; Islam et al, 2019; Alam and Haque, 2020)
To understand this dilemma of the coastal people of Bangladesh, this study develops a COVID-19 risk perception index using principal component analysis and analyzes the association of COVID-19 risk perception score with the evacuation decision during cyclone Amphan
The result shows that 23.3 percent of the coastal people in Bangladesh have a low-risk perception about the COVID-19 pandemic and identified the factor-wise perception, which is a major concern for public health and disaster management officials

Summary

Introduction

Bangladesh is regarded as the land of disaster as the country experienced more than 200 natural disasters in the last three decades, which causes massive destruction of livelihoods and economy and the deterrent in the path of accomplishing sustainability (Reliefweb, 2020; Alam and Haque, 2018; Alam et al, 2019a,b; Islam et al, 2019; Alam and Haque, 2020). Cyclone is one of Bangladesh's most recurring disasters due to its unique geophysical setting, triangular-shaped coastline geography, high sea temperature, etc (Paul, 2009; Dasgupta et al, 2014; Islam et al, 2021). Due to utmost effort from the government side, Bangladesh succeeded to reduce the devastation of the cyclone through policy formulation, effective weather forecasting, and early warning system, improved emergency evacuation planning, implementing numerous structural and non-structural measures in the coastal area (Paul and Dutt, 2010; Ahsan et al, 2016a,b). Many people didn't evacuate in Bangladesh's past cyclones due to public cyclone shelter problems, early warning related issues, socio-economic problems, and non-evacuees’ perceptions (Saha and James, 2017; Paul and Dutt, 2010; Islam et al, 2021; Ahsan et al, 2016a,b). Though Bangladesh had done a massive evacuation during cyclone Amphan, this cyclone was exceptional from all previous cyclones as an unprecedented dimension of the pandemic was added during that time

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