Understanding the mechanism of gully erosion in the alpine region through an interpretable machine learning approach

Abstract

In the alpine region, climate warming has led to the retreat of glaciers, snow cover, and permafrost. This has intensified water cycling, soil erosion, and increased the occurrence of natural disasters in the alpine region. This study investigated the Lhasa River Basin in the southern Tibetan Plateau, serving as a representative case study of a typical alpine basin, with a specific focus on gully erosion. Based on field investigations and interpretation using high-resolution satellite remote sensing images, the Random Forest (RF) algorithm was applied to evaluate gully erosion susceptibility on watershed level. The Shapley Additive Interpretation method was then used to interpret the RF model and gain deeper insights into the influencing variables of gully erosion. The results showed that the RF model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) accuracy of 0.99 and 0.98 for the training and testing datasets, respectively, indicating an outstanding performance of the model. The resulting susceptibility map based on the RF model shows that areas with moderate and higher levels of gully erosion susceptibility are covering 50 % of the basin. The model interpretation results indicated that elevation, slope, permafrost, rainstorm, silt loam topsoil, human activity, stream power, and vegetation were the explaining variables with the highest importance for gully erosion occurrence. Different variables are characterized by specific thresholds promoting gully erosion such as: i) elevations higher than 4950 m, ii) slopes steeper than 13.5°, iii) extreme rainstorms longer than 11 days per year, iv) silt loam topsoil, v) presence of permafrost, vi) stream power index higher than 1.2, and vii) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) lower than 0.25. Our findings provide the scientific basis to improve soil erosion control in such highly vulnerable alpine area.