Understanding the intention to stay and defend during a bushfire: An application of virtual reality to improve awareness of predictors associated with behavioural response

Abstract

Encouraging residents of bushfire-prone areas to make wise protective action decisions in response to bushfire threats is a challenging task. Despite the emphasis on early evacuation as the safest option, there are circumstances when staying and defending a property is a rational decision. Using the protective action decision model (PADM), this study aimed to: (1) increase understanding of the relative importance of bushfire risk perception, protective action perception, and stakeholder perception in predicting the intention to ‘stay and defend’ and (2) analyse the effect of a virtual reality (VR) intervention on these factors among South Australian residents (n = 299). Prior to the VR intervention, participants were grouped into three cohorts of ‘stay and defend’, ‘leave early’ and ‘wait and see’ based on their preferred protective action on a day forecast as a day of severe fire danger. The participants who either indicated they would ‘stay and defend’ or ‘wait and see’ experienced the intervention which challenged their capacity to ‘stay and defend’ using a virtual bushfire threat. Structural equation modelling (SEM) analysis of data showed that protective action perception was the strongest predictor of the intention to stay and defend for all cohorts. Self-efficacy was found to have a mediating role between risk perception and the intention to stay and defend. For those intending to ‘stay and defend’, stakeholder perception was not a significant predictor, however, its importance amongst all three groups significantly increased after exposure to the virtual bushfire experience. Understanding the differences in the decision-making process of the three cohorts and the way they were influenced by the virtual scenario provides valuable insights that could contribute to the design of more effective bushfire risk communication strategies.