Abstract
In this paper, a preliminary data analytics study on the spread of COVID-19 in Italy and Lombardy Region is reported to understand how the COVID-19 spread from a geographical point-of-view. Understanding the rules followed by the virus in its spread in Italy and Lombardy Region is fundamental to act properly to reduce and isolate the contagious promptly. The paper investigates the possible correlation between the goods and transport routes and the citizen travels with the spread of the COVID-19 from a geographical perspective. Moreover, in the paper, an empirical discussion is reported on how the actions and decrees, which have been imposed by the Italian Government over time, impacted actually on the spread of COVID-19. This discussion can highlight important aspects that can be taken into account in future pandemic waves, to better balance the policies and actions imposed by the Government and by the Regions.
Highlights
We study whether a correlation exists between the dependent variable COVID-19 spread with the two independent variables: logistics transport and citizen travel in RL
The Champions League match Atalanta–Valencia was played on 19th February in Milan, 4 days before the decree of 23rd February containing urgent measures to avoid the spread of COVID-19
The contagion curve in Milan starts to rise 12 days after the match Atalanta–Valencia, but other factors more likely to have had influence, included the flows of interchange between Milan and Bergamo the days after the match: on the day of the match, the Milan underground was full of Spanish fans more so than Atalanta’s fans because from Bergamo to San Siro Stadium it is easier for locals to go by car or private bus than by public transport
Summary
The uncontrolled and unpredicted spread of COVID-19 [1, 2] in Italy [3] and in particular in Lombardy Region (RL) [4] at the end of February 2020 raises the big question: “why we were not able to predict and anticipate the wave of COVID19 in Italy?”. We start from the previous authors experiences in big data smart-cities, correlation studies [5,6,7,8], and COVID-19 predictions [9, 10] to try to answer this question. The paper discusses the legislation introduced by the Italian Government to understand whether the introduced restrictions had a real impact on the COVID-19 spread
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