Understanding the factors and consequences of pipeline incidents: An analysis of gas transmission pipelines in the US

Abstract

The contemporary world is confronted with a significant and pressing challenge in the form of the energy crisis. Natural gas represents a potential solution to the crisis, and its transportation relies heavily on transmission and distribution pipelines. Regrettably, these pipelines have witnessed a significant number of severe incidents in recent years due to various reasons. This study aims to investigate the influence of different background factors on pipeline incidents triggered by distinct causal factors, using incident records from the PHMSA in the United States. This study reveals that outside force damage is the most frequent causal factor, responsible for 41.21% of total incidents. The failure rate of gas transmission pipelines is notably affected by the operational pressure ratio and the laying location class. Moreover, this study explores the relationship between various factors and each causal factor leading to the incident, assessing the incident's consequences in terms of type, injury, fatality, and total cost. Generally, incidents involving larger-diameter pipelines with higher operational pressure ratios and deployed in higher location classes have more severe consequences, with the highest injury rate, fatality rate, and cost rate being 1.728 × 10−4, 1.043 × 10−4, and 1953.36 $ per incident per kilometer, respectively. These findings contribute to a better understanding of pipeline failures and can aid in the development of accurate and effective predictive models for gas pipelines.