Understanding the Effects of Parameter Uncertainty on Temporal Dynamics of Groundwater-Surface Water Interaction

Gopal Saha,Jianbing Li,Ronald Thring

doi:10.3390/hydrology4020028

Gopal Saha, Jianbing Li + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology4020028

Copy DOI

Abstract

This study presents the understanding of temporal dynamics of groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interaction due to parameter uncertainty by using a physically-based and distributed gridded surface subsurface hydrologic analysis (GSSHA) model combined with a Monte Carlo simulation. A study area along the main stem of the Kiskatinaw River of the Kiskatinaw River watershed, Northeast British Columbia, Canada, was used as a case study. Two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios (i.e., A2: heterogeneous world with self-reliance and preservation of local identities, and B1: a more integrated and environmental-friendly world) of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for 2013 were used as case scenarios. Before conducting uncertainty analysis, a sensitivity analysis was performed to find the most sensitive parameters to the model output (i.e., mean monthly groundwater contribution to stream flow). Then, a Monte Carlo simulation was used to conduct the uncertainty analysis. The uncertainty analysis results under both case scenarios revealed that the pattern of the cumulative relative frequency distribution of the mean monthly and annual groundwater contributions to stream flow varied monthly and annually, respectively, due to the uncertainties of the sensitive model parameters. In addition, the pattern of the cumulative relative frequency distribution of a particular month’s groundwater contribution to the stream flow differed significantly between both scenarios. These results indicated the complexities and uncertainties in the GW-SW interaction system. Therefore, it is of necessity to use such uncertainty analysis results rather than the point estimates for better water resources management decision-making.

Highlights

Groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interaction plays a vital role in the functioning of riparian ecosystems [1]
The uncertainty analysis results of GW-SW interaction under the A2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario were analyzed by using the cumulative relative frequency distribution of temporal groundwater contributions to the stream flow
The results showed that the pattern of the cumulative relative frequency distribution of the mean monthly groundwater contributions to the stream flow varied monthly due to the sensitive modeling parameter uncertainty (Figure 4)

Summary

Introduction

Groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interaction plays a vital role in the functioning of riparian ecosystems [1]. Surface water can recharge groundwater, but during dry periods groundwater can act as an important source to feed the surface water flow. Groundwater and surface water are closely-linked components of the hydrologic system due to their interdependency to each other. The development and exploitation of any one component can affect the other. For developing sustainable water resources management, it is crucial to understand and quantify the exchange processes between these two components [2]. Many researchers have used different hydrologic models to quantify these exchange processes

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion