Understanding the effect of abortion attitudes on elections after Dobbs: Evidence from cross‐sectional and panel surveys in Texas

Abstract

AbstractObjectiveWe investigate the nature of abortion opinion after the Dobbs decision's reversal of Roe v. Wade with attention to the evaluation of incumbents and vote preference.MethodWe relied on pre‐ and post‐election cross‐sectional and panel survey data from Texas. Texas is an important case because (1) the ruling placed abortion policy squarely on the shoulders of the states and (2) each state has different laws regarding abortion (including so‐called “trigger” laws restricting abortion after Roe was overturned).ResultsThe data suggest that state abortion policy context affects voter attitudes and that incumbent evaluations and the vote in Texas were largely insulated from an anti‐Dobbs backlash in 2022.ConclusionIt is unrealistic to assume that a unidimensional response occurred to the Dobbs decision. The response to subnational policy changes has reflected a similar shift in the intensity of policy views that was found nationally after the Roe decision. We develop a broader thematic approach to understand the nature of abortion opinion and its impact on the evaluation of incumbents and on vote preference in 2022.