UNDERSTANDING THE DYNAMICS OF COVID-19 TRANSMISSION IN PAMPANGA PHILIPPINES: MODELING WITH A SYSTEM OF DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS

Abstract

This study introduced and solved a system of differential equations aimed at modeling the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission dynamics in the province of Pampanga. Specifically, a Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Deceased (SIRD) model was developed and built upon the foundational SIR model devised by Kermack and McKendrick in 1927.1 Various methods were employed to solve the model. Initially, the analytical solution for the rate of change of infected individuals over time was determined. Subsequently, model parameters were identified through an optimization process using the Microsoft Excel Solver. The Runge-Kutta fourth order (RK4) method, implemented in Scilab 6.1.1, was utilized to approximate the numerical solution for the rates of change of susceptible , recovered , and deceased over time. The findings underscored the significance of several parameters—namely, the transmission rate , removal rate (combining recovery and deceased rate ), the proportion of the infected population properly wearing face masks , the proportion disinfecting regularly , and the proportion practicing isolation or social distancing —in shaping the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Pampanga. The values of these model parameters reflect the effectiveness of governmental responses and actions in managing, controlling, and mitigating the spread of COVID-19, as well as the extent of public cooperation and compliance with COVID-19 directives and advisories.