Abstract
Invasive alien plant species (IAPS) can pose severe threats to biodiversity and stability of native ecosystems, therefore, predicting the distribution of the IAPS plays a crucial role in effective planning and management of ecosystems. In the present study, we use Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling approach to predict the potential of distribution of eleven IAPS under future climatic conditions under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 in part of Kailash sacred landscape region in Western Himalaya. Based on the model predictions, distribution of most of these invasive plants is expected to expand under future climatic scenarios, which might pose a serious threat to the native ecosystems through competition for resources in the study area. Native scrublands and subtropical needle-leaved forests will be the most affected ecosystems by the expansion of these IAPS. The present study is first of its kind in the Kailash Sacred Landscape in the field of invasive plants and the predictions of potential distribution under future climatic conditions from our study could help decision makers in planning and managing these forest ecosystems effectively.
Highlights
Biological invasion has become one of the major causes of economic and environmental damage in most of the countries across the world [1,2,3] and its impacts have been predicted to increase even further under future climatic conditions [4,5]
Our study provides baseline information for understanding the current distribution and predicting the future distribution of invasive alien plant species (IAPS) which are currently in the early stage of invasion and which could be potential threats in the future
The objectives of the study were to i) determine the current distribution pattern and habitat of the selected invasive plant species; ii) use the occurrence data of the selected species to predict their change in distribution under simulated different climate change scenarios in 2050 and 2070; iii) support the formulation of guidelines and management practices on controlling and to provide information to prevent further spread of IAPS in the Kailash Sacred Landscape area based on the information obtained from modelling
Summary
Biological invasion has become one of the major causes of economic and environmental damage in most of the countries across the world [1,2,3] and its impacts have been predicted to increase even further under future climatic conditions [4,5]. Climate Change, anthropogenic pressure, and land use change have accelerated bio-invasion [10,11]. The existing unique landscapes, ecosystems, and biota of Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) are spawned as a result of diverse climatic, topographic, geological, and altitudinal variations [12]. Plant invasions in mountain areas are likely to rise because of increase in trade, tourism activities, climate change, and anthropogenic
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