Understanding the Anticontagion Process and Reopening of China during COVID-19 via Coevolution Network of Epidemic and Awareness

Abstract

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is intensifying all over the world, but some countries, including China, have developed extensive and successful experience in controlling this pandemic. In this context, some questions arise naturally: What can countries caught up in the epidemic learn from China’s experience? In regions where the outbreak is under control, what would lead to a resurgence of the epidemic? To address these issues, we investigate China’s experience in anticontagion interventions and reopening process, focusing on the coevolution of epidemic and awareness during COVID-19 outbreak. Through an empirical analysis based on large-scale data and simulation based on a metapopulation and multilayer network model, we ascertain the impact of human movements and awareness diffusion on the epidemic, elucidate the inherent patterns and effective interventions of different epidemic prevention methods, and highlight the crunch time of each measure. The results are also employed to analyze COVID-19 evolution in other countries so as to find unified rules in complex situations around the world and provide advice on anticontagion and reopening policies. Our findings explain some key mechanisms of epidemic prevention and may help the epidemic analysis and decision-making in various countries suffering from COVID-19.