Abstract
Abstract. The present study investigated the impact of climate change, as projected by the Global Climate Model, HadCM3 for two different storyline (A2, B2), on the total crop production of Punjab state of India and its spatial variability for three future periods (2020, 2050 and 2080). Gridded weather data (1*1 degree) from India Meteorological Department was used as baseline weather. Daily future weather data were generated from baseline and projected change for each weather parameter (maximum and minimum temperature, rain fall). Both baseline and future weather data were then interpolated to 25*25 km grid level. The cropping system model, CropSyst was used for simulating the climate change impact on crop productivity. Cropping system map generated from remote sensing data for Punjab was used for finding the major cropping systems in each of the 25 km grid. Using this information cropping system productivity in each grid was estimated for baseline weather as well as for projected weather. Spatial pattern was generated for the difference in grid yield for each scenario. Results showed yield decline in all cropping systems except for few grids during 2020 in B2 scenario. Aggregated district yield indicated that for A2 scenario, in the near future (2020) Roopnagar (in eastern Punjab) will be the most affected district with around 35 % reduction in cropping system yield where as Hoshiarpur (in north-eastern part) will be most affected during 2050 and 2080. For B2 scenario, Hoshiarpur was found to be the most vulnerable region for all the three periods.
Highlights
Climate variability and climate change - can have strong impacts on crop production and has a direct impact on food security
Aggregated district yield indicated that for A2 scenario, in the near future (2020) Roopnagar will be the most affected district with around 35% reduction cropping system yield where as Hoshiarpur will be most affected during 2050 and 2080 under present day management situation (Table 1)
Result showed yield decline in all cropping systems except for Maize-Wheat in which the yield increased in few grids during 2020 in B2 scenarios
Summary
Climate variability and climate change - can have strong impacts on crop production and has a direct impact on food security. Quantification of impact of climate change on the productivity of different cropping systems at spatial scale is required for visualizing the impact on the total crop productivity of a region. This has led to the coupling of crop growth simulation model and spatial techniques that deal with the variability in soil, cropping system, management practice and climate of the region of interest. The present study was carried out with an objective of investigating the impact of climate change projected by the Global Climate Model, HadCM3 for two different storyline (A2, B2) on the total cropping system productivity of Punjab and its spatial variability for three future period (2020, 2050 and 2080). Each storyline represents different demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments that diverge in increasingly irreversible ways
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
