Understanding society: a reflexive foresight matrix for navigating complexity and shaping the future

Abstract

Purpose This paper introduces the foresight matrix, a conceptual framework for foresight analysis rooted in critical realism (CR) and complexity theory. It aims to address the need for a comprehensive theoretical perspective that embraces emergence and recognizes the interplay between different layers of reality. Informed by critical theory within futures studies, the study seeks to provide additional foresight theoretical perspectives in addressing contemporary societal challenges and collectively shaping desirable futures. Design/methodology/approach The proposed reflexive foresight matrix incorporates elements of CR, complexity theory and morphogenesis theory, providing an alternative conceptual framework for analyzing complex social challenges. It integrates the vertical layers – empirical, actual and real – and horizontal dimensions – structure, agency and culture. This matrix guides researchers through a systematic analysis of structural barriers, cultural influences and individual agency, offering a comprehensive tool for understanding the underlying mechanisms driving social change. Findings The reflexive foresight matrix dissects complex situations into structure, agency and culture dimensions, enabling a thorough understanding of societal dynamics by examining the interplay between these dimensions and their influence on individual and collective behaviors. This conceptual framework guides researchers through a systematic analysis of structural barriers, cultural influences and individual agency, uncovering the mechanisms driving social change. Through reflexive monitoring and temporal action analysis, it explores historical and contextual factors, informing future tendencies. Practical implications The reflexive foresight matrix provides a multidimensional lens for understanding social issues, prompting researchers to consider the interplay between structure, agency and culture across different layers of reality. By exploring historical and contextual factors, this framework enables an insight into diverse perspectives and their impact on future outlooks. Furthermore, the matrix facilitates critical inquiry into prevailing power dynamics and narratives, offering insights into societal injustices and inequalities. This critical examination empowers stakeholders to challenge dominant narratives and work toward more equitable and desirable futures. Social implications The proposed reflexive foresight matrix offers a comprehensive approach to analyzing complex social challenges, potentially impacting futures thinking and foresight practices. By integrating CR, complexity theory and morphogenesis theory, the framework fosters a deep understanding of the interplay between various factors influencing future tendencies. This comprehensive view of problems allows analysts to consider structural barriers, cultural influences and agency, thereby enhancing foresight efforts in addressing contemporary challenges. Originality/value The proposed reflexive foresight matrix contributes to futures thinking and foresight practices by offering a comprehensive approach to analyzing complex social challenges. By combining CR, complexity theory and morphogenesis theory, the framework fosters an insightful understanding of the interplay between various factors influencing future trajectories. Moreover, the integration of critical perspectives and reflexive methodologies into foresight practices underscores the importance of challenging dominant narratives, fostering inclusive decision-making processes and empowering individuals and communities to shape their futures.