Understanding seismic velocity variations of subsea permafrost: A sensitivity study

Abstract

Monitoring the change in permafrost conditions and distribution is crucial for forecasting global warming. As seismic velocities increase with ice content, marine seismic surveys can map the top of ice-bearing subsea permafrost on a large scale. However, conventional seismic methods cannot fully map internal velocity variations linked to changes in ice content because the removal of guided waves and multiples is challenging for reflection processing. Nevertheless, these arrivals carry information about velocity variations with depth. We investigate if a joint analysis of various wave arrivals could provide information about velocity variations within permafrost and accurately estimate the permafrost thickness. Through a sensitivity analysis, we estimate the feasibility of using different wave arrivals, such as reflections, refractions, multiples, and guided waves, to better characterize permafrost conditions. We find that guided waves are sensitive to velocity variations within permafrost and can detect the depth of the permafrost’s base under certain geologic conditions. Then, we combine the analysis of all seismic arrivals to derive a subsurface permafrost model for a seismic line collected in the Beaufort Sea. The joint analysis reveals the transitions in depth between ice-bonded and partially ice-bonded permafrost and offers a crude estimate of permafrost thickness.