Understanding post-pandemic spatiotemporal differences in the recovery of metro travel behavior among different groups by considering the built environment

Abstract

Numerous studies have substantiated the substantial impact of COVID-19 on metro travel, which is expected to gradually recover once the pandemic is controlled. Given the potentially more severe repercussions of COVID-19 on vulnerable groups like the elderly and people with disabilities, recovery patterns may differ significantly among various demographic segments. However, limited research has addressed this notable disparity. To address this gap, we collected metro travel data in Wuhan from March 2019 to April 2021. We analyzed changes in travel characteristics among different groups, such as the elderly, people with disabilities, commuters, school students, and others, before and after the pandemic. By employing interrupted time series analysis, we explored the short-term impact of the pandemic on different groups and their long-term recovery trajectories. We also investigated the factors influencing the recovery of metro travel among diverse demographic groups. The findings indicate the following: (1) All groups experienced a sharp decline in travel ridership and frequency in the short term due to the pandemic. (2) There are distinct variations in long-term ridership recovery among different groups, with commuters and school students showing the quickest recovery. However, ridership among people with disabilities remained below pre-pandemic levels even a year after the pandemic. (3) Given the inherent spatiotemporal regularity in residents’ daily activities, post-pandemic metro travel patterns closely align with the pre-pandemic patterns. (4) Different built environment factors exert varying degrees of influence on the recovery of metro ridership among different groups, and distinctions are evident between weekdays and weekends. These findings enhance our comprehension of the pandemic’s impact on diverse demographic groups, which can guide government agencies and urban planners in formulating more resilient strategies for rail transit operations and land use optimization.