Understanding Mass Atrocity Prevention during Periods of Democratic Transition

Stephen Mcloughlin

doi:10.17645/pag.v3i3.318

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to provide a better understanding of why some countries experience mass atrocities during periods of democratic transition, while others do not. Scholars have long regarded democracy as an important source of stability and protection from mass atrocities such as genocide, crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing. But democratic transition itself is fraught with the heightened risk of violent conflict and even mass atrocities. Indeed, a number of studies have identified regimes in transition as containing the highest risk of political instability and mass atrocities. What is overlooked is the question of how and why some regimes undergo such transitions without experiencing mass atrocities, despite the presence of a number of salient risk factors, including state-based discrimination, inter-group tension and horizontal inequality. Utilizing a new analytical framework, this article investigates this lacuna by conducting a comparative analysis of two countries—one that experienced atrocities (Burundi) during transition, and one that did not (Guyana). How countries avoid such violence during transition has the potential to yield insights for the mitigation of risk associated with mass atrocity crimes.

Highlights

In 1993, Burundi conducted free and fair elections after nearly thirty years under one party Tutsi-led authoritarian rule
My aim in this paper is threefold: to investigate the impact that long-term risk factors associated with mass atrocities have on countries undergoing democratic transition; to better understand how and why such risk becomes more acute during such periods; and to identify and trace the political, economic and social processes that are instrumental in the avoidance of atrocities on the one hand, and in their perpetration on the other
In successive large-N studies conducted by the Political Instability Task Force (PITF), countries undergoing transition were found to be at greatest risk of political instability—genocide, rebellion, revolution or violent regime change—often characterized by mass atrocities

Summary

Introduction

In 1993, Burundi conducted free and fair elections after nearly thirty years under one party Tutsi-led authoritarian rule. My aim in this paper is threefold: to investigate the impact that long-term risk factors associated with mass atrocities have on countries undergoing democratic transition; to better understand how and why such risk becomes more acute during such periods; and to identify and trace the political, economic and social processes that are instrumental in the avoidance of atrocities on the one hand, and in their perpetration on the other. The purpose of the comparative analysis is to illustrate, in broad terms, how and why mass atrocity risk escalates and de-escalates during periods of democratic transition By conducting such an analysis I do not intend to argue that were it not for certain factors, outcomes in each country would have been dramatically different. This analysis seeks to provide a more nuanced understanding of the causes of mass atrocities during periods of democratic transition, and to gain insights useful for prevention

Background and Analytical Framework

Case Study Selection and Analysis

Burundi

Guyana

Findings

Conclusion