Understanding interactions between urban development policies and GHG emissions: A case study in Stockholm\xa0Region

Haozhi Pan,Georgia Destouni,Cong Cong,Le Zhang,Brian Deal,Zahra Kalantari,Jessica Page,Elisie Jonsson,Carla Ferreira,Helena Näsström

doi:10.1007/s13280-019-01290-y

Abstract

Human-induced urban growth and sprawl have implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that may not be included in conventional GHG accounting methods. Improved understanding of this issue requires use of interactive, spatial-explicit social–ecological systems modeling. This paper develops a comprehensive approach to modeling GHG emissions from urban developments, considering Stockholm County, Sweden as a case study. GHG projections to 2040 with a social–ecological system model yield overall greater emissions than simple extrapolations in official climate action planning. The most pronounced difference in emissions (39% higher) from energy use single-residence buildings resulting from urban sprawl. And this difference is not accounted for in the simple extrapolations. Scenario results indicate that a zoning policy, restricting urban development in certain areas, can mitigate 72% of the total emission effects of the model-projected urban sprawl. The study outcomes include a decision support interface for communicating results and policy implications with policymakers.

Highlights

Understanding the role of human-driven land-use changes in climate change is important for our ability to select effective and efficient mitigation and adaptation strategiesElectronic supplementary material The online version of this article contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.(Bierwagen et al 2010)
The 2040 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimated by the coupled social– ecological system modeling in the Land-Use Evolution and Impact Assessment Model (LEAM) reference scenario are 7.9% higher than those extrapolated from current trends in the Strategy 2040 baseline scenario
We present a social–ecological process and systems modeling framework for examining future GHG emissions of various urban development and growth scenarios

Summary

Introduction

Urbanization is an essential part of human-driven land-use change, and its impacts need to be considered in regional climate modeling (Hu et al 2015). Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and carbon sinks associated with urbanization are relatively well studied (Lubowski et al 2006; Searchinger et al 2008; Larsen and Hertwich 2010; Han et al 2017). Lubowski et al (2006) model land uses in the contiguous US and suggest that future climate strategies need to consider forest-based carbon sequestration. Urban planning and policy tools are needed to identify and efficiently mitigate land-use changes associated with urbanization that pose major climate and environmental risks (Hobbs et al 2016; Deal et al 2017a; Pan et al 2018b). Urban planning and policy tools are needed to identify and efficiently mitigate land-use changes associated with urbanization that pose major climate and environmental risks (Hobbs et al 2016; Deal et al 2017a; Pan et al 2018b). Hobbs et al (2016) present a regionally calibrated model for South Australia that collects new information to facilitate better decisions in regional land-use planning for

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