Understanding Insurgency Violence: A Quantitative Analysis of the Political Violence in Northern Ireland 1969–1999

Abstract

The main argument examined in this article is that the escalation of political violence in Northern Ireland between 1969–1999 resulted because of the state's reliance on repression and this had conflicting effects contributing to the rise in violence. Perhaps the most important finding reached by this research was that a state's reliance on repression is positively associated with more insurgent violence. This research suggests that variations in outcomes to the use of force by a democratic state may result because one may assume a linear model exists when in reality the true relationship maybe curvilinear.