Understanding human dynamics in microblog posting activities

Abstract

Human activity patterns are an important issue in behavior dynamics research. Empirical evidence indicates that human activity patterns can be characterized by a heavy-tailed inter-event time distribution. However, most researchers give an understanding by only modeling the power-law feature of the inter-event time distribution, and those overlooked non-power-law features are likely to be nontrivial. In this work, we propose a behavior dynamics model, called the finite memory model, in which humans adaptively change their activity rates based on a finite memory of recent activities, which is driven by inherent individual interest. Theoretical analysis shows a finite memory model can properly explain various heavy-tailed inter-event time distributions, including a regular power law and some non-power-law deviations. To validate the model, we carry out an empirical study based on microblogging activity from thousands of microbloggers in the Celebrity Hall of the Sina microblog. The results show further that the model is reasonably effective. We conclude that finite memory is an effective dynamics element to describe the heavy-tailed human activity pattern.