Abstract
Since 2003, Brazil has striven to provide energy access to all, in rural areas, in an effort to economically empower the communities. Unpacking fuel stacking behaviour can shed light onto the speed of transition toward the exclusive use of advanced fuel types. This paper presents findings from surveys that were carried out with 14 non-electrified communities in a rural area of Rio Negro, Amazonas State, Brazil. We identify the fuel choice determinants in these communities using a multinomial logistic regression model and more generally discuss the validity and robustness of such models in the context of statistical validation and evaluation metrics. Specifically for the Amazonas communities considered in this study, the research showed that the fuel choice determinants are the age of household, the number of people at meals each day, the number of meals daily, the community, education of the household head, and the income level of the household. Moreover, given the Brazilian policies related to energy and sustainability, this region is not likely to reach the Sustainable Development Goals proposed by United Nations for 2030.
Highlights
Brazil faces chronic energy shortages, in remote riverside communities in the Amazonas State where a lack of infrastructure, expertise and financial input [1] reduces the abilities of communities to meet their energy needs
We address the issues of model validation and feature selection and how they can potentially lead to drawing inaccurate conclusions about the determinants of household fuel choice in Sections 2.1 and 4.4
In our efforts to identify the determinants of fuel choice behaviour in riverside communities in the Amazonas, we simultaneously address the above issues of model validation and feature selection in order to obtain robust conclusions that can positively and consequentially influence energy policy
Summary
Brazil faces chronic energy shortages, in remote riverside communities in the Amazonas State where a lack of infrastructure, expertise and financial input [1] reduces the abilities of communities to meet their energy needs. According to Trindade and Cordeiro [2], using 2018 data, around 5% of the Amazonas State population in Brazil, distributed in 2261 communities and 41,167 households, do not have electricity. According to Cabre et al [1], energy is to be supplied by renewable, diesel and/or hybrid systems for remote communities in which grid connection is not a viable option. Among other benefits, these interventions promise to economically empower disadvantaged and unelectrified communities. Three Amazonas State policies are of particular importance: Energies 2020, 13, 3857; doi:10.3390/en13153857 www.mdpi.com/journal/energies
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