Abstract
The Narmada river basin is a highly regulated catchment in central India, supporting a population of over 16 million people. In such extensively modified hydrological systems, the influence of anthropogenic alterations is often underrepresented or excluded entirely by large-scale hydrological models. The Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA) model is applied to the Upper Narmada, with all major dams, water abstractions and irrigation command areas included, which allows for the development of a holistic methodology for the assessment of water resources in the basin. The model is driven with 17 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to assess the impact of climate change on water resources in the basin for the period 2031–2060. The study finds that the hydrological regime within the basin is likely to intensify over the next half-century as a result of future climate change, causing long-term increases in monsoon season flow across the Upper Narmada. Climate is expected to have little impact on dry season flows, in comparison to water demand intensification over the same period, which may lead to increased water stress in parts of the basin.
Highlights
The management of water resources across the world is becoming an increasingly challenging task, owing to the impending threats of climate change, rapid urbanisation, growing population, and unsustainable exploitation
This study models the water resources of the upper part of the Narmada basin, from the most eastern extent of the basin to the downstream gauging station at at Hoshangabad, Hoshangabad, draining draining 44,548
The Global Circulation Models (GCMs) ensemble indicates that total annual rainfall is likely to increase in the Narmada basin over the half-century, along with increasing rates of evapotranspiration linked to rising temperatures, potentially having a significant impact on how much runoff is produced, stored, and subsequently used
Summary
The management of water resources across the world is becoming an increasingly challenging task, owing to the impending threats of climate change, rapid urbanisation, growing population, and unsustainable exploitation. In few places is the impact of climate change and human intervention on water resources more prominent than in India [1,2,3]. The National Water Policy of India [5] recognises the need for a national perspective on the development and management of water resources in the context of a changing climate and anthropogenic influences, in order to conserve. Ensuring the food security of a burgeoning population will further increase water requirements from systems that are already under stress due to the conflicting demands of multiple users, including domestic, agricultural, energy generation, industrial and environmental [1,6]
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