Understanding Coercive Gradualism

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Over the past few years, Russia and China have expanded their influence using step-by-step strategy of coercive gradualism. This article explores the characteristics of coercive gradualism, the factors that affect its execution, and potential counters. also examines current US policy with respect to other states' employment of coercive gradualism. ********** Over the past few years, Russia and China have expanded their influence, if not control, over others' sovereign territories or international waters. Affected states and the international community's efforts to counter such aggression have largely failed, or are in doubt. appears both Russia and China will continue their expansionist aims using step-by-step strategy--one of coercive gradualism. Gradual approaches to executing policy or strategy have always existed. Policy changes and decision-making are often evolutionary and progress by baby or by muddling through. President Franklin Roosevelt put it in practical terms when he said, It is common sense to take method and try it: If it fails, admit it frankly and try (1) The corollary to this proposition is when one finds strategy that works, to build upon it successively and cumulatively. Gradualism is by definition the principle or policy of achieving some goal by gradual steps rather than by drastic change. (2) Likewise, we may gain some insight by looking at incrementalism which is a policy of making changes, especially social changes, by degrees. (3) We can combine these with the Department of Defense's definition of strategy and arrive at one for coercive gradualism a state employing the instruments of national power in synchronized and integrated fashion to achieve national or multinational objectives by incremental steps. (4) These steps can be cooperative or coercive. Cooperative gradualism is found in almost every nation's approach to achieving its national interests. tends to be non-confrontational. is predicated on finding common ground between nations--shared values, economic benefit, improving governance, or mutual security. However, this article is about coercive gradualism. Coercive gradualism is simply step-by-step pursuit of one nation's interests against other nations' interests. is form of aggression. Moreover, as all strategies are, it is choice made within context. In particular, it is choice usually made by relatively powerful states. A state may have the capability and capacity--the ways and means--to achieve its ends, yet it might choose to do so in incremental moves as opposed to single coup de main. Characteristics of Coercive Gradualism Coercive gradualism is recognizable when three large aspects are in play. First, state (an aggressor) advances its interests at the expense of those of another. This aggression may be accompanied by threats and intimidation which, as Thomas Schelling wrote, are avoidable by accommodation. (5) This intimidation defines the strategy's coercive nature. Next, using step-by-step process makes it gradualist in character. This process is chosen within specific context. An aggressor state may own the ways and means to achieve its ends in single move, but after assessing the environment determines the risk of doing so are too great. The risk assessment thus suggests choice. In this case, the aggressor chooses gradualist approach because it determines the real or perceived reaction to incremental moves will not entail unacceptable costs. Thus, choice is the third characteristic of coercive gradualism. These three characteristics warrant further examination. Motivation Interests provide the motivation for employing any strategy, and in particular, one of coercive gradualism. The pursuit of national interests implies rational calculation. David McClelland's human motivation theory also provides insight into the motivations of national leaders. …