Understanding CBO's Medicare for All Cost Estimates

Abstract

In December 2020, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a comprehensive report analyzing the costs of a single-payer healthcare system of the kind usually referred to as “Medicare for All” (M4A). The report has not yet received as much public attention as it deserves, most likely because of ongoing controversies in the aftermath of November’s presidential election. CBO’s M4A federal cost estimates are significantly lower than those produced in other studies (including my own). The CBO report also provides much information about M4A not readily found elsewhere. In particular, the report illuminates the extent to which M4A would increase congestion in the US healthcare system and would likely lead to more denials of sought-after care. The purpose of this policy brief is to highlight the most significant information and findings in the CBO report and to explain how CBO’s estimates diverge from mine and those in other studies.