Abstract

AbstractTime series from 46 gauging station with drainage areas from 113 to 398 sq mi in the Upper Missouri River basin with mutual period of observation from 1963 to 1991 were used for analysis. Factor analysis of average annual flow revealed five patterns of river runoff within four distinct subregions of the territory (east, two carbonate karsts areas, uplands). This factor model reflected 62% variance of initial matrix. Each of four groups of watersheds obtained as a factor was presented by one gauging station with time series of annual and monthly discharges (I- 06218500, II- 06478690, III- 06412500, and IV- 06323000). Streams represented by patterns I, II and IV have increase of values and those represented by III have a decrease. The positive trend for pattern II is statistically significant. For four typical flow records, monthly average values were obtained from three to four seasons composed of different ensembles of months. The trends for seasonal components were analyzed for four typical watersheds and a significant increase was obtained for fall-winter season for type IV. Stream runoff is the most appropriate regional indicator for hydroclimatological processes. With multidimensional statistics this process can be considered as spatiotemporal structure of different scale of landscape properties and dynamics. Uncertainties of process originating stream runoff based on dynamic of regional meteorological system and diversity of local landscapes. Boundaries for domains with different annul and seasonal regimes of stream runoff were defined with factor loadings and fuzzy logic rules. With case of Missouri River basin presented that more complete decryption of real events in nature requires use probability and fuzzy logic together.

Highlights

  • Spatial-temporal variations of stream runoff for Upper Missouri River watershed * Hydrologic regime as structure * Land cover or landscape * Map with fuzzy boundaries * Applications

  • Months from previous year indicated with - 1

  • These numbers do not include other possible benefits of forecasts to the electricity industry, such as those from the improved scheduling of plant maintenance.”

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Summary

Structure of time spatial variability of stream runoff for Upper Missouri

75 25 ye ar Factor I- 1 ye ar Factor I- 2 ye ar Factor I- 3 ye ar Annual discharge IY- 6323 ye ar. Factor II- 1 3.80 2.80 ye ar October November December January February March April May June July August September Annual Expl. 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 ye ar ye ar Factor Loadings of 101 gauging stations 'W&V

Patterns of stream runoff in Central US and Upper Missouri
Seasonal structure of runoff for V typical watershed
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