Underlying driving forces of forest cover changes due to the implementation of preservation policies in Iranian northern Zagros forests

Abstract

Many countries have implemented policies to reduce the negative effects of deforestation. In Iran, the Zagros Forest Preservation Plan (ZFPP) began in 2003. This study evaluates the effectiveness of ZFPP on land cover changes in two periods, before (1993–2002) and after (2002–2017) implementation of the plan. Logistic regression (LR) analysis was used to examine the effectiveness of key socio-economic, environmental and demographic drivers associated with deforestation activities. The results showed that despite the implementation of ZFPP forest conversion to other land-use types increased during the second period compared to the first. Calculating the annual rate of deforestation showed that this rate increased from -0.4% to -0.5%. The results of LR showed that the occurrence of deforestation in different years was significantly related to distance from rivers, croplands, cities, roads, and slope such that areas with low slope and close to these features have a high probability of deforestation activities.