Underestimation of meteorological drought intensity due to lengthening of the drought season with climate change

Abstract

Abstract Meteorological drought may lead to water shortages, which has negative impacts on water-dependent sectors. Whilst there is a wealth of studies on changing drought intensity or frequency due to climate change, much less is known regarding potential shifts in the timing of drought. The purpose of this study is to analyse the timing of the drought season in the Netherlands and climatic changes therein, with a special focus on the onset of the drought season. Based on an analysis of meteorological observations in the Netherlands over the period 1965-2023, we conclude that the Dutch meteorological drought season has extended forward in time. On average, the drought season starts 16 days earlier in the period 1994-2023 compared to 1965-1993. This is mostly the result of an increase in potential evapotranspiration, while the amount of precipitation does not show a clear change at the start of the growing season. Using three climate model ensembles, we show that a forced climate change signal exists, but that natural variability also plays a role. Following this assessment of trends in meteorological variables, we analyse the consequences for the operational monitoring of meteorological drought. In the Netherlands, this is done by means of the `precipitation deficit’-indicator, based on a fixed-in-time starting point (1 April) of the drought season. The combination of this fixed starting point and the observed earlier onset of the drought season, means that in some years the indicator underestimates drought intensity, and that climatic trends are underestimated. We therefore advocate for an update of the operational drought indicator, such that meteorological drought occurring before 1 April will not be missed.