Abstract
Aggressive driving behaviors due to drivers’ underestimation of risks are one of the major causes of traffic accidents. Due to the complexity of factors influencing risk perception, the mechanism of risk underestimation remains unclear. In this study, the theory of planned behavior (TPB) was extended by adding a new variable, namely drivers’ normlessness, forming an extended TPB (ETPB) framework to analyze the factors influencing risk underestimation and the extent of their influence. A total of 376 drivers’ perceived characteristics of risk underestimation were collected through an online survey, and a structural equation model was applied to investigate the effects of normlessness, behavioral attitudes, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control on the tendency to underestimate the risk. The results showed that the ETPB model can explain the variance in the underestimation risk behavior by 69%; perceptual behavior control, attitude, and subjective norm (in descending order) had significant positive effects on driver’s tendency to underestimate risk; the normlessness variable can directly promote attitude and underestimated risk behavior; drivers with low annual mileage, complete insurance coverage, and no prior accident experience were more likely to underestimate driving risk. The study contributes to understanding of risk perception characteristics and provide theoretical basis for reducing underestimated risk behavior.
Highlights
Domestic and international studies have shown that more than 90% of traffic accidents are due to human factors [1], and one of the reasons for this phenomenon is that drivers are generally prone to overestimate their driving ability and misjudge the risks in a road environment [2,3]
The results indicated that the perceived behavioral control (PBC) had the greatest effect on the intention to underestimate the risk, followed by the ATT, suggesting that drivers who are overconfident in their driving skills and do not pay attention to traffic safety will exhibit more frequent aggressive driving behaviors, causing traffic accidents
This study extended the conventional theory of planned behavior (TPB) by introducing drivers’ normlessness and, combined with the structural equation model (SEM), verified the validity of the TPB in predicting and explaining the underestimated risk behavior
Summary
Domestic and international studies have shown that more than 90% of traffic accidents are due to human factors [1], and one of the reasons for this phenomenon is that drivers are generally prone to overestimate their driving ability and misjudge the risks in a road environment [2,3]. The difference between a driver’s perceived subjective risk and objective risk influences their choice of driving behavior [4]. Drivers may engage in aggressive driving behavior or fail to avoid hazards in a timely manner if their subjective level of perceived risk is low. Related studies have pointed out that drivers who accurately judge risks and react appropriately can significantly reduce the occurrence of traffic accidents, whereas drivers who underestimate driving risks tend to be more prone to unconscious unsafe behaviors. Since the development of research in traffic safety, the factors influencing a driver’s tendency to underestimate the risk have been of interest to researchers in various countries, and some generally accepted, well-documented results and conclusions have been obtained
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