Underestimated permafrost degradation: Improving the TTOP model based on soil thermal conductivity

Abstract

Under the continuing influence of global warming, resolving the inconsistency of permafrost degradation rates and quantifying the spatial distribution characteristics are critical for high-altitude water cycle processes. The dynamics of permafrost degradation are mainly manifested in soil temperature, which can be measured with high accuracy and high temporal resolution. This study considered the influence of soil thermal conductivity (K) by periodic land surface temperature (LST), improved the static output of the temperature at the top of permafrost (TTOP) model, and verified the reliability of the TTOP model improvement by the Kappa coefficient. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the extent of dynamically simulated permafrost was 5.42 × 105 km2 less than that of static simulated permafrost, and the linear degradation rate doubled. The degraded permafrost showed an increasing degradation from southeast to northwest. Among them, the degradation in the Nujiang River and the Changjiang River north of the Nyainqentanglha Mountain has exacerbated the permafrost degradation in the hinterland of the Qiangtang Plateau. Based on the AWI-CM-1-1-MR LST from CMIP6, SSP126 to SSP585 dynamic simulation results of permafrost indicate that the extent will decrease by 11.35 % by 2100. Overall, the extent and rate of permafrost degradation, considering high spatiotemporal resolution, were twice as fast as expected. Our results will inform policymakers with a more accurate spatiotemporal distribution of frozen soil types in high-altitude regions and characteristics of permafrost degradation within the watershed.