Uncovering the in-use metal stocks and implied recycling potential in electric vehicle batteries considering cascaded use: a case study of China.

Abstract

With the rapid promotion of new energy vehicles, in-use electric vehicle batteries (EVBs) are becoming an important component of urban mining. This paper analyzed the metal stocks in EVBs in China from 2009 to 2019 using a bottom-up method, which focused on the in-use stock of seven main metals, namely, nickel, cobalt, manganese, lithium, copper, aluminum, and iron, in primary use stage and secondary use stage of three EVB types, namely, lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide battery (NMC), lithium iron phosphate battery (LFP), and lithium manganese oxide battery (LMO). It was found that the rapid development of electric vehicles (EVs) contributed to a dramatic increase in in-use metal stocks from 0.7 kt in 2009 to 1.1 Mt in 2019. To assess the increase, three scenarios simulating metal stocks in EVBs from 2020 to 2030 were analyzed, namely, baseline, NMC-dominated, and LFP-dominated, and results indicated that metal stocks will reach 20.6 Mt, 23.2 Mt, and 17.9 Mt, respectively, by 2030. Across the scenarios there is little proportional difference in metal stocks between the two use stages. The proportion of the three EVB types correlates to the development trend of EVB technology under each corresponding scenario. Besides, the in-use metal stocks in EVBs have high implied recycling potential and environmental benefit. The recycling potential of these seven metals is 1.0 Mt in 2019, and it will reach 20.0 Mt, 22.6 Mt, and 17.4 Mt, respectively, in 2030 under the three scenarios. The results reveal the current status and evolution characteristics of metal stocks in EVBs in China, and provide data for material flow analysis and life cycle management of EVBs.