Uncovering the impact of climate and vegetation changes on runoff in karstic regions of southwest China

Abstract

The vegetation-runoff relationship remains unclear in karstic regions. The karst landform in southwest China is a focal area where significant changes in vegetation have occurred in the past few decades, which may substantially impact water resources. To date, the effects of these changes on runoff remain uncertain. This study employed statistical analysis, numerical simulation, and scenario analysis to investigate the temporal and spatial patterns of runoff, climate, and vegetation in 20 typical catchments. The study also evaluated the response of runoff to vegetation and climate changes and the underlying factors. The findings revealed precipitation changes dominated changes in runoff in these catchments (mean contribution of 53.03%), whereas the contributions of vegetation and potential evapotranspiration changes were 23.16% and 23.82%, respectively. The study also revealed that the impacts of vegetation changes on runoff were significantly dependent on vegetation and climate factors (R2 = 0.60, P < 0.01). Furthermore, under the same climate change conditions, a higher distribution of natural vegetation (such as forest) in the catchment resulted in a larger decreasing trend in runoff. The results provide guidelines for the prediction of runoff variation in southwest China, and benefits to decision-making on ecological restoration and water resources development.