Uncovering the features of industrial odors-derived environmental complaints and proactive countermeasures by using machine-learning

Abstract

Industrial odor-derived environmental complaints pose an emerging and far-reaching challenge in cities worldwide with intensive industries. Developing effective odor complaint management strategies is essential for mitigating the public impact of industrial odors. Based on a typical case of persistent tire manufacturing odors affecting local communities, we proposed an environmental complaint risks (ECR) prediction model using machine-learning (ML) approaches, which combined complaints with temporal-resolution manufacturing-meteorology-environment data. Through intensive match-making between ML algorithms and multi-source parameters, Random Forest models can achieve a reliable ECR-prediction model performance with an average ROC-AUC of 0.79at a monthly timescale, indicating the effectiveness of ML-based ECR prediction models. The interpretable ML model quantitively depicted the underlying mechanisms of ECR prediction, driven by process emission behaviors, local wind direction, and historical high-risk period. Furthermore, to mitigate predictable ECR within a future period, we designed a model framework that integrated ECR prediction models with an adaptive optimization genetic algorithm. This enabled the proactive management by precisely and dynamically allocating limited resources of emission regulatory to high-ECR periods in advance. The strategy was proven effective, achieving a significant 24.7% average reduction in the overall ECR forecast during a period with intensive complaints. Overall, this study proposed a data-driven model framework that efficiently helps the multi-stakeholders shift from passive response to proactive ECR management, thereby enhancing the environmental and social sustainability.