Uncovering Demographic Trends and Recent Urban Expansion in Metropolitan Regions: A Paradigmatic Case Study

Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir,Luca Salvati,Stefano Poponi,Ahmed Alhuseen,Enrico Maria Mosconi,Gianluca Egidi

doi:10.3390/su12093937

Abstract

While urbanization trends have been characterized for a long time by deconcentration of inner cities with expansion of low-density settlements, economic repolarization leading to re-urbanization and recovery of central districts are now counterbalancing population shrinkage in compact urban areas and slowing down suburban growth. In this context, the recent demographic evolution of a large metropolis such as Athens (Greece)—following expansion, crisis, and a more subtle economic recovery—may reveal original relationships between form and functions at the base of recent urban growth. Based on an exploratory analysis of demographic indicators on a metropolitan and urban scale, the present study provides an updated and integrated knowledge framework that confirms and integrates the most recent urban trends in southern Europe. Documenting the emergence of more individualized paths of urban expansion at the local scale (recovery of the historic center, shrinkage of semicentral neighborhoods, ‘reverse gentrification’ of disadvantaged peripheral areas, late suburbanization of accessible peripheral areas), results of the present study justify an ad hoc analysis of metropolitan growth based on demographic indicators as a proxy for sustainable land management and local development.

Highlights

Urbanization projections—including those from the United Nations Population Division—outline a future period of increasing uncertainty during which metropolitan growth will be highly dynamic, spatially uncoordinated, and mostly heterogeneous across countries and regions [1,2,3,4,5,6]
Considering the intimate relationship between economic downturns and urban stages, our study assumes that the demographic context in urban areas is sensitive to short-term economic impulses and may anticipate future trends in metropolitan expansion
With urban development paths becoming more fragmented and individualized everywhere in the world, as our analysis outlines for Athens, the coexistence of contrasting demographic dynamics highlights the inherent challenge in formulating reliable scenarios of future urban growth, in line with what has already been observed for other Mediterranean cities, including Rome in Italy and Barcelona in Spain [12,13,24,26,43]

Summary

Introduction

Urbanization projections—including those from the United Nations Population Division—outline a future period of increasing uncertainty during which metropolitan growth will be highly dynamic, spatially uncoordinated, and mostly heterogeneous across countries and regions [1,2,3,4,5,6]. While urbanization trends have been characterized for a long time by (a more or less rapid) deconcentration of inner cities with a faster outbound expansion of low-density settlements [16,17,18,19], empirical evidences for a new wave of economic repolarization leading to re-urbanization and recovery of central districts have been emerged recently. These processes may counterbalance population shrinkage in urban areas, slowing down suburban growth and settlement sprawl [20,21,22,23]. When based on insufficiently long temporal periods, a partial interpretation of such dynamics does not allow generalizations to other socioeconomic contexts, preventing emergence of innovative paradigms to interpret the multifaceted challenges of contemporary cities’ development [35,36,37]

Results

Discussion

Conclusion