Abstract
AbstractAccurately characterizing changes in irrigation water use (IWU) is crucial for formulating optimal water resource allocation policies, particularly in the context of climate change. However, existing IWU estimation methods suffer from uncertainties due to limited data availability and model constraints, restricting their applicability on a national scale and under future climate change scenarios. We present a robust framework leveraging machine learning and multiple data sets to estimate IWU across China. Forced with an ensemble of climate and socio‐economic projections, we appraise future trends and additional costs of IWU. Our model shows high accuracy in reproducing IWU, with coefficient of determination (R2) ranging from 0.86 to 0.91 and root mean square error from 0.261 to 0.361 km3/yr when compared to reported values in Chinese prefectures. Independent validation at 11 cropland sites further confirms the model's predictive power (R2 = 0.67). Under different emissions scenarios, China's IWU is projected to increase by 8.5%–17.1% (6.8%–34.8%) by 2050s (2100s) compared to the historical period (1981–2010), with higher emissions leading to more significant increases. This rise in IWU by 2050s (2100s) comes with an estimated additional cost of US $1.65–3.91 ($2.28–6.5) billion/year, highlighting the urgency for sustainable water management. Our study provides an effective approach for estimating current and future IWU using machine learning techniques, transferable to other countries facing increasing irrigation demands.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.