Unchanged frequency and decreasing magnitude of outbursts from ice-dammed lakes in Alaska

Abstract

Glacial lakes can form and grow due to glacial retreat, and rapid lake drainage can produce destructive floods. Outburst flood compilations show a temporal increase in frequency; however, recent studies highlight the role of observational bias, creating uncertainty about current and future glacial-lake hazards. Here, we focus on the Alaska region, which generated a third of previously documented outbursts globally. Using multitemporal satellite imagery, we documented 1150 drainages from 106 ice-dammed lakes between 1985 and 2020. Documented events became more frequent over time, however, accounting for increasing image availability reveals no significant increase occurred. Most lakes decreased in area and volume, suggesting a reduction in regional flood hazard. Our satellite-based approach documented 60% more events in a 35-year period than had previously been documented over 100 years. This suggests that outburst floods have historically been underreported and warrants systematic study of other regions.