Abstract
The study presents a method for uncertainty sensitivity analysis in damage tolerance analysis with ultrasonic inspection data. Uncertainties associated with fatigue model parameters and ultrasonic flaw sizing are quantified using statistical parameter identification and model-assisted probability of detection (MAPOD), respectively. The influence of the uncertainties to the damage tolerance result are systematically analyzed using the method of sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity analysis is made based on the distribution parameters of an uncertain variable instead of a specific value of the uncertain variable; therefore, the sensitivity analysis is global in nature and can reflect the overall contribution of an uncertain variable. The results can be subsequently integrated with uncertainty management and reduction in order to reduce the assessment risk. The overall method is demonstrated using a steam turbine rotor example.
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