Uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques to improve predictions of laser beam control performance

Abstract

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the study of the effects of uncertainty on the values of analytical results and the predictions of scientific models. Sources of uncertainty include imprecise knowledge of the exact values of parameters, lack of confidence in the physical models, use of imperfectly calibrated models, and irreducible uncertainties due to physical characteristics. The Air Force Research Laboratory has undertaken the challenge of understanding, developing and analyzing the techniques of UQ as they apply to Laser Beam Control. This paper proposes a simple methodology and simple results with our first attempt of applying UQ as a new analysis tool. The software toolkit which was chosen was an analytical group of algorithms from a Sandia National Laboratory (SNL) package called DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications). The specific application of interest to the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) is the analytical prediction of the performance of a Laser Beam Control systems under various scenarios, conditions, and missions. The application of rigorous UQ techniques to the models used to predict beam control performance could greatly improve our confidence in these predictions and also improve the acceptance of advanced Laser Beam Control systems within the science and engineering communities1,2. The proposed work would follow a multi-step approach, analyzing the more easily quantified sources of uncertainty, and then including increasingly complicated physical phenomena as the work progresses. Will present the initial results, and the first steps in the incorporation of UQ into our Laser Beam Control Modeling and Simulation environments.