Uncertainty quantification in modelling equiaxed alloy solidification

Abstract

Numerical simulations can provide insight into physical phenomena during alloy solidification processes that cannot be observed experimentally. These model predictions depend on the material, process and numerical parameters which contain inherit uncertainties due to their origin in experimental measurements or model assumptions. As a step towards understanding the effect of uncertain inputs on solidification process modelling, uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis are performed on a transient model of transport phenomena during the solidification of grain refined Al-4.5 wt.% Cu in a rectangular cavity. The effect of microstructural model parameters, thermal boundary conditions and material property input uncertainties are examined for their effect on macrosegregation levels and solidification time. Predictions of the macrosegregation level are most sensitive to the dendrite arm spacing of the rigid mushy zone.