Uncertainty Quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis for Transient Wave Propagation in Pressurized Pipes

Abstract

AbstractAccurate simulation of pipe transient wave is crucial for the design, reliability assessment, and defect detection of water supply systems. However, this is a difficult task since the wave propagation media in pipeline systems are often highly complex and involve a range of uncertainties. Experimental data show that key parameters such as valve closure time, wave speed, and pipe material coefficients are strongly uncertain and stochastic that may vary in a wide range. To analyze the transient behavior in such complex environments, surrogate models are built to realize the fast computation of uncertainty propagation. Three surrogate modeling methods, i.e., the polynomial‐chaos‐expansion, ordinary‐Kriging, and polynomial‐chaos‐Kriging, are tested and compared in terms of transient wave forecast accuracy. The global sensitivity is then analyzed via the Sobol index method, by which the most influential uncertainty sources on various transient signal features are identified.